What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Odds right now: 4.25% 84%, ≤1.0% 16%, ≥ 4.5% 9%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 8:03 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 4.25% as the most likely outcome at 84%, ahead of ≤1.0% (16%) and ≥ 4.5% (9%). 15 outcomes are trading in all. 4.25% has risen 16 points since October 12, from 68% to 84%. ≤1.0% has risen 7 points since October 12, from <1% to 8%.
$7.2M has been traded on this event, $17K of it in the last 24 hours, and $320K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “≤1.0%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 57% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “≤1.0%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
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Questions
What are the odds of What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
On Polymarket, 4.25% is trading at 84%. Other outcomes: 4.25% 84%, ≤1.0% 16%, ≥ 4.5% 9%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 4.25% as the most likely outcome at 84%, ahead of ≤1.0% (16%) and ≥ 4.5% (9%). 15 outcomes are trading in all. 4.25% has risen 16 points since October 12, from 68% to 84%. ≤1.0% has risen 7 points since October 12, from <1% to 8%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.