What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
Odds right now: SMART AI system 2%, EMP <1%, Cable cut or physical damage 23%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 1:11 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 7 separate markets for “What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop”: “SMART AI system” at 2%, “EMP” at <1%, “Cable cut or physical damage” at 23% and “Telecom carrier or contractor fault” at 87%. SMART AI system has fallen 48 points since November 13, from 51% to 2%. EMP has fallen 49 points since November 13, from 50% to <1%.
On Kalshi, the same question for SMART AI system trades at 7%, 5 points higher than on Polymarket (2%); the two real-money markets average 5%. The cross-market table above compares all 6 matched outcomes.
$5.1K has been traded on this event, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Cable cut or physical damage”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the cause or causes to which the U.S. government officially attributes the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the ground stop to the listed cause within this timeframe. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Cable cut or physical damage”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the cause or causes to which the U.S. government officially attributes the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the ground stop to the listed cause within this timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". More than one market may resolve to "Yes". The ground stop refers to the nationwide departure ground stop the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued on November 13, 2026. A cause qualifies if it is attributed as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar, communications, or other system outage behind it. The listed causes are defined as follows: Equipment or system failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power, or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming, or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance or upgrade work: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change, or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system. Cable cut or physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna, or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather. Software or configuration error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade. Telecom carrier or contractor fault: the failure, damage, error, or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network, or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor. SMART AI system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems. EMP: an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including one produced by a nuclear or non-nuclear weapon or device, that disrupted or damaged electrical or electronic equipment used by the FAA or its contractors. Solar storms and other natural geomagnetic disturbances will not count. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the listed cause caused the ground stop or the outage behind it. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused by a cyberattack, jamming, or sabotage will also qualify for the relevant market. Statements describing a cause as suspected, likely, probable, under investigation, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with a cause, will not qualify. A statement that the ground stop followed a communication, radio, or radar outage or issue, without saying what caused that outage, will not qualify. A cause of a different outage or ground stop will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More tech & ai markets
Questions
What are the odds of What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
On Polymarket, SMART AI system is trading at 2%. Other outcomes: SMART AI system 2%, EMP <1%, Cable cut or physical damage 23%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket prices 7 separate markets for “What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop”: “SMART AI system” at 2%, “EMP” at <1%, “Cable cut or physical damage” at 23% and “Telecom carrier or contractor fault” at 87%. SMART AI system has fallen 48 points since November 13, from 51% to 2%. EMP has fallen 49 points since November 13, from 50% to <1%.
What are the Kalshi odds for What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
On Kalshi, SMART AI system trades at 7%, against 2% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.