What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO?
Odds right now: 5% to 6% 34%, 4% to 5% 28%, 6% to 7% 19%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “5% to 6%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the percentage of Anthropic's total outstanding shares sold in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The number of shares sold is defined as the total number of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold by Anthropic and shares sold by selling stockholders as part of the IPO offering will both be included. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be included in the number of shares sold. Total outstanding shares is defined as the number of shares of Class A common stock plus the number of shares of Class N common stock to be outstanding after the offering, each as stated in the section titled "The Offering" of the final prospectus, using the Class A figure that assumes no exercise of the overallotment option. The percentage will be calculated by dividing the number of shares sold by the total outstanding shares, without rounding. If the percentage falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
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Questions
What are the odds of What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO?
On Polymarket, 5% to 6% is trading at 34%. Other outcomes: 5% to 6% 34%, 4% to 5% 28%, 6% to 7% 19%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.