US recession by end of 2027?
Odds right now: Yes 28%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
US recession by end of 2027: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “US recession by end of 2027” a 28% chance. The price has fallen 5 points since October 10, from 33% to 28%, after peaking at 36% on October 20. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
$23K has been traded on this event, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $20K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “US recession by end of 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 80% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 31, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “US recession by end of 2027?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of US recession by end of 2027?
On Polymarket, US recession by end of 2027? is trading at 28%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with US recession by end of 2027?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “US recession by end of 2027” a 28% chance. The price has fallen 5 points since October 10, from 33% to 28%, after peaking at 36% on October 20. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 31, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.