Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
Odds right now: No Change 54%, 25 bps increase 26%, 25 bps decrease 10%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Swiss National Bank Decision in June: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of 25 bps increase (26%) and 25 bps decrease (10%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 4 points since October 30, from 51% to 54%, after peaking at 73% on November 8. 25 bps increase has fallen 24 points since October 30, from 50% to 26%, after peaking at 57% on November 4. In the last 24 hours No Change lost 18 points.
$23K has been traded on this event, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, and $11K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No Change”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 52% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on June 24, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the June 2027 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No Change”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the June 2027 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its June 2027 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for June 24, 2027, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its June 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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Questions
What are the odds of Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
On Polymarket, No Change is trading at 54%. Other outcomes: No Change 54%, 25 bps increase 26%, 25 bps decrease 10%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of 25 bps increase (26%) and 25 bps decrease (10%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 4 points since October 30, from 51% to 54%, after peaking at 73% on November 8. 25 bps increase has fallen 24 points since October 30, from 50% to 26%, after peaking at 57% on November 4. In the last 24 hours No Change lost 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on June 24, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.