Swiss National Bank decision in December?
Odds right now: No Change 85%, 25 bps increase 15%, 25 bps decrease <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Swiss National Bank decision in December: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 5:56 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 85%, ahead of 25 bps increase (15%) and 25 bps decrease (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 11 points since October 12, from 73% to 85%, after peaking at 92% on November 10. 25 bps increase has fallen 8 points since October 12, from 24% to 16%, after peaking at 27% on October 13. In the last 24 hours No Change lost 3 points.
$85K has been traded on this event, $3.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $22K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “25 bps increase”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 57% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 10, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “25 bps increase”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for December 10, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More economy markets
Questions
What are the odds of Swiss National Bank decision in December?
On Polymarket, No Change is trading at 85%. Other outcomes: No Change 85%, 25 bps increase 15%, 25 bps decrease <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Swiss National Bank decision in December?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 85%, ahead of 25 bps increase (15%) and 25 bps decrease (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 11 points since October 12, from 73% to 85%, after peaking at 92% on November 10. 25 bps increase has fallen 8 points since October 12, from 24% to 16%, after peaking at 27% on October 13. In the last 24 hours No Change lost 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 10, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.