Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Odds right now: January 31, 2027 10%, December 31, 2027 63%, March 31, 2027 24%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...”: “January 31, 2027” at 10%, “December 31, 2027” at 63%, “March 31, 2027” at 24% and “June 30, 2027” at 42%. January 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 14, from 50% to 10%. December 31, 2027 has risen 14 points since November 14, from 50% to 64%.
On Kalshi, the same question for January 31, 2027 trades at 7%, 3 points lower than on Polymarket (10%); the two real-money markets average 9%. The cross-market table above compares all 4 matched outcomes.
$6.4K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “January 31, 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for any single date from market creation to the specified date, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “January 31, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Resolution source: portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for any single date from market creation to the specified date, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve to “Yes” as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average, or to “No” once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period with no qualifying 7-day moving average. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
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Questions
What are the odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
On Polymarket, January 31, 2027 is trading at 10%. Other outcomes: January 31, 2027 10%, December 31, 2027 63%, March 31, 2027 24%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 4 separate markets for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...”: “January 31, 2027” at 10%, “December 31, 2027” at 63%, “March 31, 2027” at 24% and “June 30, 2027” at 42%. January 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 14, from 50% to 10%. December 31, 2027 has risen 14 points since November 14, from 50% to 64%.
What are the Kalshi odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
On Kalshi, January 31, 2027 trades at 7%, against 10% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.