S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11?
Odds right now: $760 66%, $765 2%, $745 >99%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 8:04 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11”: “$760” at 66%, “$765” at 2%, “$745” at >99% and “$755” at 98%. $760 has risen 19 points since November 10, from 50% to 68%, after peaking at 91% on November 11. $765 has fallen 47 points since November 10, from 50% to 2%. In the last 24 hours $760 gained 57 points.
$26K has been traded on this event, $26K of it in the last 24 hours, and $39K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$760”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026. How it resolves: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11?
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$760”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Full rules from Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11?
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Questions
What are the odds of S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11?
On Polymarket, $760 is trading at 66%. Other outcomes: $760 66%, $765 2%, $745 >99%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 11”: “$760” at 66%, “$765” at 2%, “$745” at >99% and “$755” at 98%. $760 has risen 19 points since November 10, from 50% to 68%, after peaking at 91% on November 11. $765 has fallen 47 points since November 10, from 50% to 2%. In the last 24 hours $760 gained 57 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.