Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
Odds right now: <$4.00T 47%, $4.00-$4.50T 24%, $4.50-$5.00T 16%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 3:50 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see <$4.00T as the most likely outcome at 47%, ahead of $4.00-$4.50T (24%) and $4.50-$5.00T (16%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. <$4.00T has risen 44 points since October 13, from 3% to 47%. $4.00-$4.50T has risen 20 points since October 13, from 4% to 24%, after peaking at 37% on November 11. In the last 24 hours <$4.00T gained 17 points.
$82K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $65K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “<$4.00T”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 69% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “<$4.00T”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
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Questions
What are the odds of Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
On Polymarket, <$4.00T is trading at 47%. Other outcomes: <$4.00T 47%, $4.00-$4.50T 24%, $4.50-$5.00T 16%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see <$4.00T as the most likely outcome at 47%, ahead of $4.00-$4.50T (24%) and $4.50-$5.00T (16%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. <$4.00T has risen 44 points since October 13, from 3% to 47%. $4.00-$4.50T has risen 20 points since October 13, from 4% to 24%, after peaking at 37% on November 11. In the last 24 hours <$4.00T gained 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.