NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9?
Odds right now: $190 3%, $180 33%, $185 12%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9”: “$190” at 3%, “$180” at 33%, “$185” at 12% and “$200” at 1%. $190 has fallen 46 points since November 6, from 50% to 3%. $180 has fallen 15 points since November 6, from 50% to 35%, after peaking at 91% on November 7. In the last 24 hours $190 lost 30 points.
$7.7K has been traded on this event, $6.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.4K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$180”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 78% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on November 9, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$180”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on November 9, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9?
On Polymarket, $190 is trading at 3%. Other outcomes: $190 3%, $180 33%, $185 12%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on November 9”: “$190” at 3%, “$180” at 33%, “$185” at 12% and “$200” at 1%. $190 has fallen 46 points since November 6, from 50% to 3%. $180 has fallen 15 points since November 6, from 50% to 35%, after peaking at 91% on November 7. In the last 24 hours $190 lost 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.