US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
Odds right now: December 31 31%, November 30 12%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...”: “December 31” at 31% and “November 30” at 12%. December 31 has fallen 20 points since October 30, from 51% to 31%, after peaking at 61% on October 31. November 30 has fallen 39 points since October 27, from 51% to 12%.
$558K has been traded on this event, $41K of it in the last 24 hours, and $48K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 63% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
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Questions
What are the odds of US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 31%. Other outcomes: December 31 31%, November 30 12%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...”: “December 31” at 31% and “November 30” at 12%. December 31 has fallen 20 points since October 30, from 51% to 31%, after peaking at 61% on October 31. November 30 has fallen 39 points since October 27, from 51% to 12%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.