Next US president's age at inauguration?
Odds right now: 50+ 35%, 60+ 21%, 80+ 9%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “50+”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual to be sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump is the listed age or older on the day on which they are sworn in. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Next US president's age at inauguration?
On Polymarket, 50+ is trading at 35%. Other outcomes: 50+ 35%, 60+ 21%, 80+ 9%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 21, 2029, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.