Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?
Odds right now: November 11 >99%, November 13 >99%, November 30 >99%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 7:48 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...”: “November 11” at >99%, “November 13” at >99%, “November 30” at >99% and “November 20” at >99%. November 11 has risen 50 points since November 6, from 50% to >99%. November 13 has risen 49 points since November 6, from 51% to >99%. In the last 24 hours November 11 gained 89 points.
$47K has been traded on this event, $16K of it in the last 24 hours, and $15K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?
On Polymarket, November 11 is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: November 11 >99%, November 13 >99%, November 30 >99%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...”: “November 11” at >99%, “November 13” at >99%, “November 30” at >99% and “November 20” at >99%. November 11 has risen 50 points since November 6, from 50% to >99%. November 13 has risen 49 points since November 6, from 51% to >99%. In the last 24 hours November 11 gained 89 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.