National Guard deployed to election sites by...?
Odds right now: December 31 3%, November 30 3%, November 15 1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if federalized National Guard personnel are deployed to a polling place or a vote-counting or canvassing center in the United States between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deployment requires National Guard personnel who have been called into federal service or placed under orders pursuant to Title 10 of the U.S. Code (including under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act, 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255) to be assigned to, and physically present at, a polling place, early voting site, or facility where ballots are counted, tabulated, or canvassed (including an election office conducting a count, recount, or canvass) in connection with the November 3, 2026 U.S. elections or any count, recount, or canvass of those elections. National Guard personnel serving in State Active Duty or Title 32 status, including routine election support under a governor's authority (e.g. cybersecurity, logistics, or poll worker assistance), will not qualify. Deployments of the District of Columbia National Guard or of Title 32 personnel in Washington, D.C. will likewise not qualify unless those personnel are called into federal service under Title 10. Incidental presence of Guard personnel near a polling place or counting facility in the course of a deployment not assigned to that location will not qualify. Statements, announcements, threats, or orders to deploy will not qualify unless federalized National Guard personnel are physically deployed to a qualifying location. Deployments of active-duty military personnel other than the National Guard, or of federal law enforcement personnel, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of National Guard deployed to election sites by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 3%. Other outcomes: December 31 3%, November 30 3%, November 15 1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.