Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Odds right now: ≤1.9% 53%, 2.0-2.4% 25%, 2.5-2.9% <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see ≤1.9% as the most likely outcome at 53%, ahead of 2.0-2.4% (25%) and 2.5-2.9% (<1%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. ≤1.9% has fallen 26 points since October 14, from 79% to 53%, after peaking at 96% on October 17. 2.0-2.4% has risen 6 points since October 14, from 20% to 25%, after peaking at 70% on October 20. In the last 24 hours ≤1.9% lost 38 points.
$107K has been traded on this event, $6.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $14K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “2.0-2.4%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 79% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “2.0-2.4%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026?
On Polymarket, ≤1.9% is trading at 53%. Other outcomes: ≤1.9% 53%, 2.0-2.4% 25%, 2.5-2.9% <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see ≤1.9% as the most likely outcome at 53%, ahead of 2.0-2.4% (25%) and 2.5-2.9% (<1%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. ≤1.9% has fallen 26 points since October 14, from 79% to 53%, after peaking at 96% on October 17. 2.0-2.4% has risen 6 points since October 14, from 20% to 25%, after peaking at 70% on October 20. In the last 24 hours ≤1.9% lost 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.