House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
Odds right now: Jim Jordan 99%, Person E 50%, Person F 50%.
Show 15 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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House Minority Leader of the next Congress: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:22 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Jim Jordan as the most likely outcome at 99%, ahead of Person E (50%) and Person F (50%). 27 outcomes are trading in all. Jim Jordan has risen 49 points since October 28, from 50% to 99%. In the last 24 hours Jim Jordan gained 34 points.
$18K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $42K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Person E”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Person E”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
On Polymarket, Jim Jordan is trading at 99%. Other outcomes: Jim Jordan 99%, Person E 50%, Person F 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Jim Jordan as the most likely outcome at 99%, ahead of Person E (50%) and Person F (50%). 27 outcomes are trading in all. Jim Jordan has risen 49 points since October 28, from 50% to 99%. In the last 24 hours Jim Jordan gained 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.