Gemini Hydrogen released by...?
Odds right now: November 30 95%, December 31 95%, January 31 97%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Gemini Hydrogen released by: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Gemini Hydrogen released by...”: “November 30” at 95%, “December 31” at 95% and “January 31” at 97%. November 30 has risen 46 points since November 11, from 50% to 95%. December 31 has risen 46 points since November 11, from 50% to 95%. In the last 24 hours November 30 gained 25 points.
$6.5K has been traded on this event, $6.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $3.7K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 96% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027. How it resolves: On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/). Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Hydrogen" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model (including an update released under that model's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More tech & ai markets
Questions
What are the odds of Gemini Hydrogen released by...?
On Polymarket, November 30 is trading at 95%. Other outcomes: November 30 95%, December 31 95%, January 31 97%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Gemini Hydrogen released by...?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Gemini Hydrogen released by...”: “November 30” at 95%, “December 31” at 95% and “January 31” at 97%. November 30 has risen 46 points since November 11, from 50% to 95%. December 31 has risen 46 points since November 11, from 50% to 95%. In the last 24 hours November 30 gained 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.