Fed Decision in April?
Odds right now: No change 65%, 25 bps increase 14%, 25 bps decrease 10%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Fed Decision in April: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:19 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No change as the most likely outcome at 65%, ahead of 25 bps increase (14%) and 25 bps decrease (10%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No change has risen 16 points since October 28, from 50% to 65%. 25 bps increase has fallen 36 points since October 28, from 51% to 14%. In the last 24 hours No change gained 6 points.
$53K has been traded on this event, $3.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $292K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “25 bps increase”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 86% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 28, 2027. How it resolves: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “25 bps increase”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 14 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Full rules from Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Questions
What are the odds of Fed Decision in April?
On Polymarket, No change is trading at 65%. Other outcomes: No change 65%, 25 bps increase 14%, 25 bps decrease 10%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Fed Decision in April?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see No change as the most likely outcome at 65%, ahead of 25 bps increase (14%) and 25 bps decrease (10%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No change has risen 16 points since October 28, from 50% to 65%. 25 bps increase has fallen 36 points since October 28, from 51% to 14%. In the last 24 hours No change gained 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 28, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.