FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?
Odds right now: Yes <1%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape: the story so far
Updated November 14, 2026 at 2:24 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape” a <1% chance. The price has fallen 49 points since November 13, from 50% to <1%.
$4.5K has been traded on this event, $4.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $11K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to an AI sandbox escape between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to an AI sandbox escape between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. An AI sandbox escape refers to an artificial intelligence model or agent breaking out of, or circumventing, the sandbox, test environment, or other technical containment it was confined to, and acting outside it without authorization. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was caused by an AI sandbox escape. Attributions of the outage to artificial intelligence that do not state that an AI model or agent escaped or circumvented its containment, such as a malfunction in AI software deployed by the FAA or a cyberattack carried out by people using AI tools, will not qualify. Statements describing an AI sandbox escape as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by private companies will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of any investigation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?
On Polymarket, FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape? is trading at <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?
As of November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders give “FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape” a <1% chance. The price has fallen 49 points since November 13, from 50% to <1%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.