EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
Odds right now: 35M+ 47%, 33M+ 66%, 30M+ 78%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 1:44 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 8 separate markets for “EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026”: “35M+” at 47%, “33M+” at 66%, “30M+” at 78% and “34M+” at 53%. 35M+ has risen 35 points since October 10, from 13% to 47%, after peaking at 73% on November 6. 33M+ has risen 25 points since October 10, from 42% to 66%.
$50K has been traded on this event, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, and $6.7K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “37M+”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 53% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “37M+”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 13 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/tab
Full rules from Polymarket
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of December 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-12”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for December 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data. Values will count regardless of any status flag (e.g. estimated, provisional). The figure will be used as published, without rounding. If Eurostat becomes permanently unavailable or has not published a qualifying figure for December 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the latest data available. The primary resolution source for this market will be Eurostat, specifically the nrg_stk_oilm dataset at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table. If the dataset is discontinued or restructured, the equivalent successor series published by Eurostat will be used. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes values in thousands of tonnes (e.g. 35M tonnes = 35,000 thousand tonnes). Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market. Note: Eurostat publishes monthly emergency oil stock data with a delay. The European Union aggregate is generally published approximately three months after the end of the reference month, once all Member States have reported (for example, data for June 2026 was the latest available as of October 1, 2026). Data for December 2026 is therefore expected to be published around late March or April 2027, and this market will remain unresolved until the publication of qualifying data.
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Questions
What are the odds of EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
On Polymarket, 35M+ is trading at 47%. Other outcomes: 35M+ 47%, 33M+ 66%, 30M+ 78%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 8 separate markets for “EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026”: “35M+” at 47%, “33M+” at 66%, “30M+” at 78% and “34M+” at 53%. 35M+ has risen 35 points since October 10, from 13% to 47%, after peaking at 73% on November 6. 33M+ has risen 25 points since October 10, from 42% to 66%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.