Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
Odds right now: The Odyssey 86%, Dune: Messiah 12%, Wild Horse Nine <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see The Odyssey as the most likely outcome at 86%, ahead of Dune: Messiah (12%) and Wild Horse Nine (<1%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. The Odyssey has risen 2 points since October 11, from 84% to 86%. Dune: Messiah has fallen 5 points since October 11, from 17% to 12%.
$281K has been traded on this event, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $98K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Dune: Messiah”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 58% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Dune: Messiah”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
On Polymarket, The Odyssey is trading at 86%. Other outcomes: The Odyssey 86%, Dune: Messiah 12%, Wild Horse Nine <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see The Odyssey as the most likely outcome at 86%, ahead of Dune: Messiah (12%) and Wild Horse Nine (<1%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. The Odyssey has risen 2 points since October 11, from 84% to 86%. Dune: Messiah has fallen 5 points since October 11, from 17% to 12%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.