What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Odds right now: $1.25T–$1.5T 23%, <$1T 18%, $1.5T–$1.75T 17%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 12:50 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see $1.25T–$1.5T as the most likely outcome at 23%, ahead of <$1T (18%) and $1.5T–$1.75T (17%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. $1.25T–$1.5T has risen 14 points since October 11, from 9% to 23%. <$1T has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 21% to 18%, after peaking at 31% on October 26. In the last 24 hours $1.25T–$1.5T gained 4 points.
$737K has been traded on this event, $17K of it in the last 24 hours, and $49K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$1.75T–$2.0T”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 87% of their money on No. 1 large bet in the last 30 days stood out as unusual for size, odds or wallet history.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$1.75T–$2.0T”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 79Economy · 13 days ago
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?: <$1T
$4.9K on No at 74¢ · pays $6.6K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only 2 markets ever traded
- A quarter or more of the wallet's money in this bet
0x3ef1…c7afnew that day · 2 mkts · −$85 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
On Polymarket, $1.25T–$1.5T is trading at 23%. Other outcomes: $1.25T–$1.5T 23%, <$1T 18%, $1.5T–$1.75T 17%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see $1.25T–$1.5T as the most likely outcome at 23%, ahead of <$1T (18%) and $1.5T–$1.75T (17%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. $1.25T–$1.5T has risen 14 points since October 11, from 9% to 23%. <$1T has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 21% to 18%, after peaking at 31% on October 26. In the last 24 hours $1.25T–$1.5T gained 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.