Vermont Governor Election: Turnout
Odds right now: 300K-325K 98%, 250K-275K 1%, 275K-300K <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Vermont Governor Election: Turnout: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 1:46 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 300K-325K as the most likely outcome at 98%, ahead of 250K-275K (1%) and 275K-300K (<1%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 300K-325K has risen 65 points since October 12, from 33% to 98%. 250K-275K has briefly spiked to 47% on November 4 but is back near 2%, about where it was on October 12.
$41K has been traded on this event, $4.0K of it in the last 24 hours, and $46K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “300K-325K”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “300K-325K”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Vermont Governor Election: Turnout?
On Polymarket, 300K-325K is trading at 98%. Other outcomes: 300K-325K 98%, 250K-275K 1%, 275K-300K <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Vermont Governor Election: Turnout?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 300K-325K as the most likely outcome at 98%, ahead of 250K-275K (1%) and 275K-300K (<1%). 7 outcomes are trading in all. 300K-325K has risen 65 points since October 12, from 33% to 98%. 250K-275K has briefly spiked to 47% on November 4 but is back near 2%, about where it was on October 12.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.