S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9?
Odds right now: $750 87%, $745 97%, $740 99%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9”: “$750” at 87%, “$745” at 97%, “$740” at 99% and “$730” at >99%. $750 has risen 37 points since November 6, from 50% to 87%. $745 has risen 48 points since November 6, from 50% to 98%. In the last 24 hours $750 gained 68 points.
$14K has been traded on this event, $17K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$750”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 88% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026. How it resolves: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9?
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$750”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Full rules from Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9?
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Questions
What are the odds of S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9?
On Polymarket, $750 is trading at 87%. Other outcomes: $750 87%, $745 97%, $740 99%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 9”: “$750” at 87%, “$745” at 97%, “$740” at 99% and “$730” at >99%. $750 has risen 37 points since November 6, from 50% to 87%. $745 has risen 48 points since November 6, from 50% to 98%. In the last 24 hours $750 gained 68 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.