S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10?
Odds right now: $745 99%, $750 22%, $740 99%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:21 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10”: “$745” at 99%, “$750” at 22%, “$740” at 99% and “$755” at 1%. $745 has risen 49 points since November 9, from 50% to 98%. $750 has fallen 22 points since November 9, from 50% to 28%, after peaking at 75% on November 10. In the last 24 hours $745 gained 15 points.
$9.9K has been traded on this event, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $12K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$750”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 10, 2026. How it resolves: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10?
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$750”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Full rules from Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10?
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Questions
What are the odds of S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10?
On Polymarket, $745 is trading at 99%. Other outcomes: $745 99%, $750 22%, $740 99%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 10”: “$745” at 99%, “$750” at 22%, “$740” at 99% and “$755” at 1%. $745 has risen 49 points since November 9, from 50% to 98%. $750 has fallen 22 points since November 9, from 50% to 28%, after peaking at 75% on November 10. In the last 24 hours $745 gained 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 10, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.