South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
Odds right now: >5.0% 49%, 4.7-5.0% 28%, 4.4-4.7% 17%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 7:20 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see >5.0% as the most likely outcome at 49%, ahead of 4.7-5.0% (28%) and 4.4-4.7% (17%). 10 outcomes are trading in all. >5.0% has risen 17 points since October 10, from 32% to 49%, after peaking at 86% on October 19. 4.7-5.0% has risen 15 points since October 10, from 13% to 28%, after peaking at 47% on November 7. In the last 24 hours >5.0% lost 4 points.
$123K has been traded on this event, $7.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $45K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “>5.0%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 59% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 21, 2027. How it resolves: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “>5.0%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of South Africa Annual Inflation 2026?
On Polymarket, >5.0% is trading at 49%. Other outcomes: >5.0% 49%, 4.7-5.0% 28%, 4.4-4.7% 17%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with South Africa Annual Inflation 2026?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see >5.0% as the most likely outcome at 49%, ahead of 4.7-5.0% (28%) and 4.4-4.7% (17%). 10 outcomes are trading in all. >5.0% has risen 17 points since October 10, from 32% to 49%, after peaking at 86% on October 19. 4.7-5.0% has risen 15 points since October 10, from 13% to 28%, after peaking at 47% on November 7. In the last 24 hours >5.0% lost 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 21, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.