October Inflation US - Annual
Odds right now: 3.7% 92%, 3.8% 5%, 3.6% 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
October Inflation US - Annual: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see 3.7% as the most likely outcome at 92%, ahead of 3.8% (5%) and 3.6% (2%). 12 outcomes are trading in all. 3.7% has risen 42 points since October 14, from 51% to 93%. 3.8% has fallen 45 points since October 14, from 50% to 5%. In the last 24 hours 3.7% gained 4 points.
$98K has been traded on this event, $14K of it in the last 24 hours, and $43K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “3.7%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026. How it resolves: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “3.7%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
Full rules from Polymarket
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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Questions
What are the odds of October Inflation US - Annual?
On Polymarket, 3.7% is trading at 92%. Other outcomes: 3.7% 92%, 3.8% 5%, 3.6% 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with October Inflation US - Annual?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see 3.7% as the most likely outcome at 92%, ahead of 3.8% (5%) and 3.6% (2%). 12 outcomes are trading in all. 3.7% has risen 42 points since October 14, from 51% to 93%. 3.8% has fallen 45 points since October 14, from 50% to 5%. In the last 24 hours 3.7% gained 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.