
Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?
Odds right now: Resigned/removed; Over $4T 44%, Resigned/removed; Under $4T 39%, Not resigned/removed; Over $4T 15%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 6:50 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Resigned/removed; Over $4T as the most likely outcome at 44%, ahead of Resigned/removed; Under $4T (39%) and Not resigned/removed; Over $4T (15%). 4 outcomes are trading in all. Resigned/removed; Over $4T has fallen 7 points since November 11, from 51% to 44%, after peaking at 69% on November 12. Resigned/removed; Under $4T has fallen 12 points since November 11, from 51% to 39%.
$13K has been traded on this event, $14K of it in the last 24 hours, and $30K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Resigned/removed; Over $4T”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 58% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and (2) whether Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is above $4 trillion. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Resigned/removed; Over $4T”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and (2) whether Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is above $4 trillion. Options beginning "Resigned/removed" require Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA to be officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Options beginning "Not resigned/removed" require no such announcement by that time. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Over $4T" or "Under $4T"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Jensen Huang resignation or removal: The departure will be considered to be announced when Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Huang has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as CEO of NVIDIA. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as CEO, including to take another role at NVIDIA, and removal includes dismissal or termination by NVIDIA’s Board of Directors. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, this component will be "Resigned/removed" if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this component will be "Not resigned/removed". The primary resolution sources for this component will be official information from Jensen Huang and NVIDIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Nvidia market cap: This component is "Over $4T" if Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is $4 trillion or greater. Otherwise, it is "Under $4T". Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this component is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More economy markets
Questions
What are the odds of Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?
On Polymarket, Resigned/removed; Over $4T is trading at 44%. Other outcomes: Resigned/removed; Over $4T 44%, Resigned/removed; Under $4T 39%, Not resigned/removed; Over $4T 15%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Resigned/removed; Over $4T as the most likely outcome at 44%, ahead of Resigned/removed; Under $4T (39%) and Not resigned/removed; Over $4T (15%). 4 outcomes are trading in all. Resigned/removed; Over $4T has fallen 7 points since November 11, from 51% to 44%, after peaking at 69% on November 12. Resigned/removed; Under $4T has fallen 12 points since November 11, from 51% to 39%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.