How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?
Odds right now: 170-189 >99%, <150 <1%, 150-169 <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 3:16 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 170-189 as the most likely outcome at >99%, ahead of <150 (<1%) and 150-169 (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 170-189 has risen 49 points since October 28, from 51% to >99%. <150 has fallen 50 points since October 28, from 51% to <1%. In the last 24 hours 170-189 gained 71 points.
$13K has been traded on this event, $4.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $32K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “170-189”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “170-189”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Resolution source: portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?
On Polymarket, 170-189 is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: 170-189 >99%, <150 <1%, 150-169 <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 170-189 as the most likely outcome at >99%, ahead of <150 (<1%) and 150-169 (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 170-189 has risen 49 points since October 28, from 51% to >99%. <150 has fallen 50 points since October 28, from 51% to <1%. In the last 24 hours 170-189 gained 71 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 9, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.