How high will inflation get in 2026?
Odds right now: Above 5% 5%, Above 4.5% 10%, Above 6% 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How high will inflation get in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “How high will inflation get in 2026”: “Above 5%” at 5%, “Above 4.5%” at 10%, “Above 6%” at 2% and “Above 10%” at 2%. Above 5% has fallen 2 points since October 11, from 8% to 5%, after peaking at 12% on October 19. Above 4.5% has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 13% to 10%, after peaking at 21% on November 3.
$1.6M has been traded on this event, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $77K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Above 4.5%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Above 4.5%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of How high will inflation get in 2026?
On Polymarket, Above 5% is trading at 5%. Other outcomes: Above 5% 5%, Above 4.5% 10%, Above 6% 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How high will inflation get in 2026?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “How high will inflation get in 2026”: “Above 5%” at 5%, “Above 4.5%” at 10%, “Above 6%” at 2% and “Above 10%” at 2%. Above 5% has fallen 2 points since October 11, from 8% to 5%, after peaking at 12% on October 19. Above 4.5% has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 13% to 10%, after peaking at 21% on November 3.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.