Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Odds right now: 60%+ 88%, 65%+ 47%, 70%+ 14%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 7 separate markets for “Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026”: “60%+” at 88%, “65%+” at 47%, “70%+” at 14% and “58%+” at 97%. 60%+ has risen 27 points since October 10, from 62% to 88%. 65%+ has risen 13 points since October 10, from 34% to 47%. In the last 24 hours 60%+ gained 29 points.
$151K has been traded on this event, $8.7K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “60%+”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 76% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “60%+”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: agi.safe.ai/
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
On Polymarket, 60%+ is trading at 88%. Other outcomes: 60%+ 88%, 65%+ 47%, 70%+ 14%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 7 separate markets for “Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026”: “60%+” at 88%, “65%+” at 47%, “70%+” at 14% and “58%+” at 97%. 60%+ has risen 27 points since October 10, from 62% to 88%. 65%+ has risen 13 points since October 10, from 34% to 47%. In the last 24 hours 60%+ gained 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.