ECB Interest Rates: February 2027
Odds right now: No Change 88%, 25 bps increase 11%, 50+ bps decrease 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
ECB Interest Rates: February 2027: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 88%, ahead of 25 bps increase (11%) and 50+ bps decrease (2%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 39 points since October 30, from 50% to 88%. 25 bps increase has fallen 39 points since October 30, from 50% to 11%. In the last 24 hours No Change gained 9 points.
$15K has been traded on this event, $6.7K of it in the last 24 hours, and $16K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No Change”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 96% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 4, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the February 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No Change”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the February 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its February 2027 meeting, scheduled for February 3 and February 4, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's February 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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Questions
What are the odds of ECB Interest Rates: February 2027?
On Polymarket, No Change is trading at 88%. Other outcomes: No Change 88%, 25 bps increase 11%, 50+ bps decrease 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with ECB Interest Rates: February 2027?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see No Change as the most likely outcome at 88%, ahead of 25 bps increase (11%) and 50+ bps decrease (2%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. No Change has risen 39 points since October 30, from 50% to 88%. 25 bps increase has fallen 39 points since October 30, from 50% to 11%. In the last 24 hours No Change gained 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 4, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.