China Annual Inflation 2026
Odds right now: 0.6 – 1.0% 45%, 0.1 – 0.5% 31%, 1.1 – 1.5% 8%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
China Annual Inflation 2026: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 10:50 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 0.6 – 1.0% as the most likely outcome at 45%, ahead of 0.1 – 0.5% (31%) and 1.1 – 1.5% (8%). 9 outcomes are trading in all. 0.6 – 1.0% has risen 6 points since October 13, from 42% to 48%, after peaking at 66% on October 22. 0.1 – 0.5% has risen 15 points since October 13, from 16% to 31%, after peaking at 40% on November 11. In the last 24 hours 0.6 – 1.0% gained 3 points.
$138K has been traded on this event, $4.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $12K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “0.6 – 1.0%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 56% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027. How it resolves: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “0.6 – 1.0%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of China Annual Inflation 2026?
On Polymarket, 0.6 – 1.0% is trading at 45%. Other outcomes: 0.6 – 1.0% 45%, 0.1 – 0.5% 31%, 1.1 – 1.5% 8%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with China Annual Inflation 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 0.6 – 1.0% as the most likely outcome at 45%, ahead of 0.1 – 0.5% (31%) and 1.1 – 1.5% (8%). 9 outcomes are trading in all. 0.6 – 1.0% has risen 6 points since October 13, from 42% to 48%, after peaking at 66% on October 22. 0.1 – 0.5% has risen 15 points since October 13, from 16% to 31%, after peaking at 40% on November 11. In the last 24 hours 0.6 – 1.0% gained 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 11, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.