Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Odds right now: Yes 20%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Unlikely. USDR is named in Sept terms but still has no MiCA white paper as of 12 Nov, and Revolut cannot offer it until one is published.
- Sep 15 2026 EEA terms name USDR but offer it only after its white paper is published.
- ESMA register as of 12 Nov 2026 lists Bridge’s EURR only; no Revolut USD token.
- Pharos retired the 2026 target on 13 Sep; no contract, chain or launch date is public.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:48 AM UTC from live market data and Cleus’s research.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026” a 20% chance. The price has fallen 15 points since October 14, from 35% to 20%, after peaking at 42% on November 1. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
Cleus’s own estimate is 10%, 10 points below the market (confidence: medium, researched November 13, 2026). Sep 15 2026 EEA terms name USDR but offer it only after its white paper is published. What to watch next: Next weekly ESMA MiCA register update, or silence through 31 Dec 2026.
$93K has been traded on this event, $3.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $6.0K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 90% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: Yes only if a Revolut USD-pegged stablecoin is actively transferable or tradable by 31 Dec 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Revolut or credible reporting decides; announcements alone fail. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Yes only if a Revolut USD-pegged stablecoin is actively transferable or tradable by 31 Dec 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Revolut or credible reporting decides; announcements alone fail.
Watch out: Naming USDR in terms or a press release does not count. Fee-free USDC/USDT swaps are not a Revolut-launched coin.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
On Polymarket, Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? is trading at 20%. Cleus’s own estimate is 10%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026” a 20% chance. The price has fallen 15 points since October 14, from 35% to 20%, after peaking at 42% on November 1. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Yes only if a Revolut USD-pegged stablecoin is actively transferable or tradable by 31 Dec 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Revolut or credible reporting decides; announcements alone fail.
What does Cleus predict?
Unlikely. USDR is named in Sept terms but still has no MiCA white paper as of 12 Nov, and Revolut cannot offer it until one is published.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.