Bitcoin above ___ on November 13?
Odds right now: 68,000 97%, 66,000 99%, 78,000 28%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
BTC is ~$75.9k. CPI in the window fattens tails, so 72k at 85.5% looks rich and 78k/80k a bit cheap versus a 5–6% six-day range.
- 66,00099% · mkt 99%
- 78,00030% · mkt 28% +2
- 72,00083% · mkt 86% −3
- 70,00093% · mkt 94% −1
- 80,00014% · mkt 13% +2
- 68,00097% · mkt 97%
- Binance BTCUSDT was about $75,860 on Nov 7, after a ~5.5% Nov 5 drop from above $80k.
- Oct CPI is Tue Nov 10 at 8:30 ET (last print 3.7% y/y); PPI is Fri Nov 13 at 8:30 ET, before noon.
- 7-day realized vol was ~52% through Nov 6, with ETF outflows into Nov 6 and fear near 25.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “68,000”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Yes only if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle that closes at noon ET on Nov 13 has a Close strictly above the listed strike.
Watch out: It is the noon ET 1-minute Binance close, not the daily close or another venue. A print equal to the strike is No.
Resolution source: www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Bitcoin above ___ on November 13?
On Polymarket, 68,000 is trading at 97%. Cleus’s own estimate is 97%. Other outcomes: 68,000 97%, 66,000 99%, 78,000 28%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 13, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Yes only if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle that closes at noon ET on Nov 13 has a Close strictly above the listed strike.
What does Cleus predict?
BTC is ~$75.9k. CPI in the window fattens tails, so 72k at 85.5% looks rich and 78k/80k a bit cheap versus a 5–6% six-day range.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.