Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
Odds right now: December 31 85%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 1:51 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31” a 85% chance. The price has risen 5 points since October 12, from 80% to 85%, after peaking at 94% on October 16. In the last 24 hours it lost 9 points.
$1.2M has been traded on this event, $4.0K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.1K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 72% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 85%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31” a 85% chance. The price has risen 5 points since October 12, from 80% to 85%, after peaking at 94% on October 16. In the last 24 hours it lost 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.