Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Odds right now: Yes 1%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 9:50 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027” a 1% chance. The price has held close to 1% since October 13.
$1.1M has been traded on this event, $5.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $17K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More crypto markets
Questions
What are the odds of Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
On Polymarket, Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? is trading at 1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027” a 1% chance. The price has held close to 1% since October 13.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.