Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?
Odds right now: Ezra Frech 56%, Harry Shum Jr. 17%, Connor Wood 17%.
Show 4 more outcomes
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Ezra Frech is still likeliest at 50%, a shade under 55%: his fanbase and story hold, but Harry's scoring lead and Ezra's Nov 10 dip make it tighter.
- Harry Shum Jr.23% · mkt 18% +5
- Amber Glenn8% · mkt 11% −2
- Ezra Frech50% · mkt 55% −5
- Connor Wood14% · mkt 17% −3
- Harry leads season points 307-298 and topped the board three straight weeks; Ezra tied for low at 27/30 on Nov 10 Grammy Night.
- Jenna Dewan went home Nov 10 despite a 30, proof votes can erase a scoring edge — the same pro-dancer risk that shadows Harry.
- Kalshi still has Frech near 58% to win and 98% to reach the Nov 24 final; sportsbooks have him about 64% at -175.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 5:08 AM UTC from live market data and Cleus’s research.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Ezra Frech as the most likely outcome at 56%, ahead of Harry Shum Jr. (17%) and Connor Wood (17%). 16 outcomes are trading in all. Ezra Frech has briefly spiked to 69% on October 28 but is back near 56%, about where it was on October 13. Harry Shum Jr. has risen 7 points since October 13, from 11% to 18%, after peaking at 22% on November 11.
On Kalshi, the same question for Ezra Frech trades at 57%, in line with Polymarket. The cross-market table above compares all 6 matched outcomes.
Cleus’s own estimate for Ezra Frech is 50%, 6 points below the market (confidence: medium, researched November 12, 2026). Harry leads season points 307-298 and topped the board three straight weeks; Ezra tied for low at 27/30 on Nov 10 Grammy Night. What to watch next: Semifinals Tue Nov 17, 8pm ET — one elimination before the Nov 24 finale.
$140K has been traded on this event, $6.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $108K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Ezra Frech”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 70% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: The celebrity on the winning team, as announced on the official Season 35 finale broadcast. Alphabetical first if multiple winners. Other if no winner by March 31, 2027.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Ezra Frech”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: The celebrity on the winning team, as announced on the official Season 35 finale broadcast. Alphabetical first if multiple winners. Other if no winner by March 31, 2027.
Watch out: The title is not pure judges' scores. Combined ranking points from scores and public votes decide it, which is why a 30 could not save Dewan.
Full rules from Polymarket
Dancing with the Stars is a reality dance competition in which celebrities are paired with professional dancers to perform dance routines. This market will resolve to the celebrity participant of the winning team of Dancing with the Stars: Season 35. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Dancing with the Stars: Season 35 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Dancing with the Stars: Season 35 has otherwise not concluded by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Dancing with the Stars: Season 35.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?
On Polymarket, Ezra Frech is trading at 56%. Cleus’s own estimate is 50%. Other outcomes: Ezra Frech 56%, Harry Shum Jr. 17%, Connor Wood 17%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Ezra Frech as the most likely outcome at 56%, ahead of Harry Shum Jr. (17%) and Connor Wood (17%). 16 outcomes are trading in all. Ezra Frech has briefly spiked to 69% on October 28 but is back near 56%, about where it was on October 13. Harry Shum Jr. has risen 7 points since October 13, from 11% to 18%, after peaking at 22% on November 11.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?
On Kalshi, Ezra Frech trades at 57%, against 56% on Polymarket.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
The celebrity on the winning team, as announced on the official Season 35 finale broadcast. Alphabetical first if multiple winners. Other if no winner by March 31, 2027.
What does Cleus predict?
Ezra Frech is still likeliest at 50%, a shade under 55%: his fanbase and story hold, but Harry's scoring lead and Ezra's Nov 10 dip make it tighter.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.