How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Odds right now: 35 to 49 85%, 50 or more 4%, 20 to 34 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 3:22 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see 35 to 49 as the most likely outcome at 85%, ahead of 50 or more (4%) and 20 to 34 (2%). 4 outcomes are trading in all. 35 to 49 has risen 35 points since October 10, from 50% to 85%. 50 or more has fallen 8 points since October 10, from 12% to 4%, after peaking at 28% on October 13. In the last 24 hours 35 to 49 gained 58 points.
$104K has been traded on this event, $12K of it in the last 24 hours, and $7.4K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “35 to 49”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “35 to 49”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Resolution source: www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page
Full rules from Polymarket
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
On Polymarket, 35 to 49 is trading at 85%. Other outcomes: 35 to 49 85%, 50 or more 4%, 20 to 34 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see 35 to 49 as the most likely outcome at 85%, ahead of 50 or more (4%) and 20 to 34 (2%). 4 outcomes are trading in all. 35 to 49 has risen 35 points since October 10, from 50% to 85%. 50 or more has fallen 8 points since October 10, from 12% to 4%, after peaking at 28% on October 13. In the last 24 hours 35 to 49 gained 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.