SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Odds right now: November 30, 2026 97%, Chopsticks catch Starship? 53%, November 15, 2026 59%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 3:22 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 6 separate markets for “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15”: “November 30, 2026” at 97%, “Chopsticks catch Starship” at 53%, “November 15, 2026” at 59% and “Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster” at 76%. November 30, 2026 has risen 9 points since October 10, from 88% to 97%. Chopsticks catch Starship? has risen 25 points since October 10, from 28% to 53%, after peaking at 77% on October 24. In the last 24 hours November 30, 2026 gained 3 points.
$73K has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $5.1K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
On Polymarket, November 30, 2026 is trading at 97%. Other outcomes: November 30, 2026 97%, Chopsticks catch Starship? 53%, November 15, 2026 59%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 6 separate markets for “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15”: “November 30, 2026” at 97%, “Chopsticks catch Starship” at 53%, “November 15, 2026” at 59% and “Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster” at 76%. November 30, 2026 has risen 9 points since October 10, from 88% to 97%. Chopsticks catch Starship? has risen 25 points since October 10, from 28% to 53%, after peaking at 77% on October 24. In the last 24 hours November 30, 2026 gained 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.