Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” Sale Price
Odds right now: $50m-$60m 31%, $40m-$50m 26%, $60m-$70m 25%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” Sale Price: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $50m-$60m as the most likely outcome at 31%, ahead of $40m-$50m (26%) and $60m-$70m (25%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. $50m-$60m has fallen 20 points since November 7, from 51% to 31%, after peaking at 63% on November 8. $40m-$50m has fallen 24 points since November 7, from 50% to 26%, after peaking at 73% on November 8. In the last 24 hours $50m-$60m lost 10 points.
$6.4K has been traded on this event, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $9.1K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$40m-$50m”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 74% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 18, 2026. How it resolves: Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” (Lot 26A) is expected to be sold at Christie's 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser”.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$40m-$50m”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” (Lot 26A) is expected to be sold at Christie's 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser”. If the final sale price falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "<$40m". The market will resolve according to the final listed “Price Realised” on Christie's (https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6614747).
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Questions
What are the odds of Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” Sale Price?
On Polymarket, $50m-$60m is trading at 31%. Other outcomes: $50m-$60m 31%, $40m-$50m 26%, $60m-$70m 25%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” Sale Price?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders see $50m-$60m as the most likely outcome at 31%, ahead of $40m-$50m (26%) and $60m-$70m (25%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. $50m-$60m has fallen 20 points since November 7, from 51% to 31%, after peaking at 63% on November 8. $40m-$50m has fallen 24 points since November 7, from 50% to 26%, after peaking at 73% on November 8. In the last 24 hours $50m-$60m lost 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 18, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.