Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Odds right now: $500M 9%, $1B 6%, $100M 9%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 6:55 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 6 separate markets for “Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch”: “$500M” at 9%, “$1B” at 6%, “$100M” at 9% and “$250M” at 7%. $500M has fallen 2 points since October 13, from 11% to 9%, after peaking at 20% on October 15. $1B has fallen 3 points since October 13, from 9% to 6%.
$1.1M has been traded on this event, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $132K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “$100M”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “$100M”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
On Polymarket, $500M is trading at 9%. Other outcomes: $500M 9%, $1B 6%, $100M 9%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 6 separate markets for “Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch”: “$500M” at 9%, “$1B” at 6%, “$100M” at 9% and “$250M” at 7%. $500M has fallen 2 points since October 13, from 11% to 9%, after peaking at 20% on October 15. $1B has fallen 3 points since October 13, from 9% to 6%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.