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Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

Odds right now: Match Winner 32%, Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) 41%, Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 49%.

SportsEnds in 18 h$37K traded$37K in 24h$89K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Match Winner
32%TheMongolz——
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
41%Natus Vincere——
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
49%Over——
Map 1 Winner
36%TheMongolz——
O/U 2.5 Games
46%Over——
Map 2 Winner
41%TheMongolz——
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
46%Natus Vincere——
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
49%Over——
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
42%Natus Vincere——
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50%Over——
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
50%Natus Vincere——
Price history
11%34%56%Nov 6Nov 6
Match Winner 32%Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) 41%Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 48%Map 1 Winner 35%
Where the money sits
Match Winner$50K
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)$21K
Map 1 Winner$5.3K
O/U 2.5 Games$3.3K
Map 2 Winner$3.1K
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$1.7K
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$1.6K
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)$1.4K

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
Match Winner1.0¢$12K$19K
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)1.0¢$8.7K$496
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.54.0¢$252$183
Map 1 Winner1.0¢$412$785
O/U 2.5 Games1.0¢$135$1.0K
Map 2 Winner1.0¢$757$541

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

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Cleus’s read

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Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Match Winner”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($13K held)
TheMongolz 8%92% Natus Vincere
All top holders ($32K held)
TheMongolz 31%69% Natus Vincere

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x9697…18e9 Natus Vincere$7.2K$62K
0x994e…6136 Natus Vincere$6.8K−$181K
0x6b97…8d30 Natus Vincere$5.2K$197K
0xdd88…dadb TheMongolz$4.8K−$1.6M
0x078f…796c TheMongolz$1.4K−$6.1K
0x52b7…0aa1 TheMongolz$945$44K
0xf253…c69d Natus Vincere$655−$4.7K
0x6027…78a0 Natus Vincere$511—
0x66b1…340f TheMongolz$481−$37K
0x7353…b476 TheMongolz$469$5.9K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Resolution source: www.twitch.tv/ESLCS

Full rules from Polymarket

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between TheMongolz and Natus Vincere in the IEM Beijing Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 1:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 7, 2026 at 1:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

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Questions

What are the odds of Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs?

On Polymarket, Match Winner is trading at 32%. Other outcomes: Match Winner 32%, Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) 41%, Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 49%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 7, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.