Bitcoin above ___ on November 17?
Odds right now: 64,000 98%, 66,000 97%, 78,000 12%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Bitcoin above ___ on November 17: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 7:15 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “Bitcoin above ___ on November 17”: “64,000” at 98%, “66,000” at 97%, “78,000” at 12% and “72,000” at 65%. 64,000 has held close to 98% since November 10. 66,000 has risen 48 points since November 10, from 49% to 97%.
Options markets imply a fair value of 96% for 64,000.
$6.2K has been traded on this event, $6.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $117K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “66,000”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 97% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 17, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “66,000”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Bitcoin above ___ on November 17?
On Polymarket, 64,000 is trading at 98%. Other outcomes: 64,000 98%, 66,000 97%, 78,000 12%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Bitcoin above ___ on November 17?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 11 separate markets for “Bitcoin above ___ on November 17”: “64,000” at 98%, “66,000” at 97%, “78,000” at 12% and “72,000” at 65%. 64,000 has held close to 98% since November 10. 66,000 has risen 48 points since November 10, from 49% to 97%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 17, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.