Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
Odds right now: Yes 63%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 5:55 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record” a 63% chance. The price has fallen 17 points since October 12, from 80% to 63%, after peaking at 90% on November 7. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
$17K has been traded on this event, $3.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $2.4K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 69% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Resolution source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No". The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season. If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No". No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it. The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
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Questions
What are the odds of Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
On Polymarket, Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? is trading at 63%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record” a 63% chance. The price has fallen 17 points since October 12, from 80% to 63%, after peaking at 90% on November 7. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.