Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 89%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Extended launch a token by ___ : the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 5:53 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026” a 89% chance. The price has risen 15 points since October 12, from 74% to 89%, after peaking at 98% on October 24. In the last 24 hours it lost 5 points.
$479K has been traded on this event, $21K of it in the last 24 hours, and $16K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 69% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 89%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026” a 89% chance. The price has risen 15 points since October 12, from 74% to 89%, after peaking at 98% on October 24. In the last 24 hours it lost 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.