Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Odds right now: Yes 60%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 3:16 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31” a 60% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 11, from 66% to 59%, after peaking at 83% on October 29. In the last 24 hours it lost 11 points.
$223K has been traded on this event, $3.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $2.6K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
On Polymarket, Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? is trading at 60%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31” a 60% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 11, from 66% to 59%, after peaking at 83% on October 29. In the last 24 hours it lost 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.