When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Odds right now: November 15 - 30, 2026 75%, Before November 15, 2026 7%, December 1 - 15, 2026 3%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 5:14 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see November 15 - 30, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 75%, ahead of Before November 15, 2026 (7%) and December 1 - 15, 2026 (3%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. November 15 - 30, 2026 has risen 25 points since October 30, from 51% to 75%. Before November 15, 2026 has fallen 45 points since October 30, from 51% to 6%, after peaking at 66% on November 11. In the last 24 hours November 15 - 30, 2026 gained 46 points.
$27K has been traded on this event, $5.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $4.3K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Before November 15, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 63% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Before November 15, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
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Questions
What are the odds of When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
On Polymarket, November 15 - 30, 2026 is trading at 75%. Other outcomes: November 15 - 30, 2026 75%, Before November 15, 2026 7%, December 1 - 15, 2026 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see November 15 - 30, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 75%, ahead of Before November 15, 2026 (7%) and December 1 - 15, 2026 (3%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. November 15 - 30, 2026 has risen 25 points since October 30, from 51% to 75%. Before November 15, 2026 has fallen 45 points since October 30, from 51% to 6%, after peaking at 66% on November 11. In the last 24 hours November 15 - 30, 2026 gained 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.