When will Ethereum hit $4k?
Odds right now: by September 30, 2027 14%, by March 31, 2027 8%, by December 31, 2026 2%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
When will Ethereum hit $4k: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 5:43 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “When will Ethereum hit $4k”: “by September 30, 2027” at 14%, “by March 31, 2027” at 8%, “by December 31, 2026” at 2% and “by June 30, 2027” at 13%. by September 30, 2027 has fallen 17 points since October 16, from 31% to 14%. by March 31, 2027 has fallen 14 points since October 16, from 22% to 8%. In the last 24 hours by September 30, 2027 lost 5 points.
Options markets imply a fair value of 2% for by March 31, 2027.
$73K has been traded on this event, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $116K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “by September 30, 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “by September 30, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of When will Ethereum hit $4k?
On Polymarket, by September 30, 2027 is trading at 14%. Other outcomes: by September 30, 2027 14%, by March 31, 2027 8%, by December 31, 2026 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with When will Ethereum hit $4k?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket prices 5 separate markets for “When will Ethereum hit $4k”: “by September 30, 2027” at 14%, “by March 31, 2027” at 8%, “by December 31, 2026” at 2% and “by June 30, 2027” at 13%. by September 30, 2027 has fallen 17 points since October 16, from 31% to 14%. by March 31, 2027 has fallen 14 points since October 16, from 22% to 8%. In the last 24 hours by September 30, 2027 lost 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.