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Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on November 15?

Odds right now: 27°C 92%, 28°C 9%, 29°C <1%.

OtherEnds in 2 h$12K traded$9.2K in 24h$75K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
27°C
92%—▲ 57.5
28°C
9%—▲ 5.3
29°C
<1%——
21°C or below
<1%——
22°C
<1%——
23°C
<1%——
24°C
<1%—▼ 1.5
25°C
<1%—▼ 7.4
26°C
<1%—▼ 53.9
30°C
<1%——
31°C or higher
<1%——
Price history
0%50%100%Nov 13Nov 15
27°C 92%28°C 9%29°C <1%21°C or below <1%
Where the money sits
24°C$14K
23°C$14K
25°C$13K
22°C$13K
26°C$12K
21°C or below$6.6K
31°C or higher$1.2K
30°C$957

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
27°C5.0¢$273$53
28°C4.1¢$11$3
29°C0.2¢$1$0

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

Cleus’s read

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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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What’s going on

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on November 15: the story so far

Updated November 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM UTC from live market data.

As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 27°C as the most likely outcome at 92%, ahead of 28°C (9%) and 29°C (<1%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 27°C has risen 42 points since November 13, from 50% to 92%. 28°C has fallen 41 points since November 13, from 50% to 9%. In the last 24 hours 27°C gained 57 points.

$12K has been traded on this event, $9.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $75K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “27°C”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.

Trading is scheduled to end on November 15, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) on 15 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “27°C”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 2 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($49 held)
Yes 0%100% No
All top holders ($1.3K held)
Yes 91%9% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x14ad…69f5 Yes$254$12K
0x056f…36fa Yes$162$2.2K
0x0a0c…a853 Yes$120$18K
0x38a1…3154 Yes$112$4.5K
0xa817…95d7 Yes$107−$332
0x8da3…c418 Yes$55−$93
0x5bae…ed25 Yes$51$10K
0x31c2…34cd Yes$48−$629
0xf8db…ca1d Yes$46$100
0x29a5…a3c4 Yes$37$21K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.

Resolution source: aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LLBG&format=raw&date=2026-11-16T01:00:00Z

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) on 15 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LLBG&format=raw&date=2026-11-16T01:00:00Z&hours=30

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Questions

What are the odds of Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on November 15?

On Polymarket, 27°C is trading at 92%. Other outcomes: 27°C 92%, 28°C 9%, 29°C <1%. Prices update live.

What’s going on with Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on November 15?

As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 27°C as the most likely outcome at 92%, ahead of 28°C (9%) and 29°C (<1%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 27°C has risen 42 points since November 13, from 50% to 92%. 28°C has fallen 41 points since November 13, from 50% to 9%. In the last 24 hours 27°C gained 57 points.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 15, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.